Rusya’nın Uzak Doğu’sunda Nüfus hakkında tespitler (The Main Observations about Russian Far East Population)

6 Ağustos 2013 tarihli aşağıdaki makale alıntısından Rusya’nın Uzak Doğu nüfus probleminin özeti ortaya çıkmaktadır- İnsan Ağaçları Modeli’ne göre, sağlıklı insan hiyerarşileri kurulduktan sonra, 6 milyonluk Rusya bölge nüfusu da 110-150 milyon Çin nüfusu baskısına dayanabilecektir:

(http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-pacific-china-east/25067862.html)

in seeking to develop its Far East, Russia is fighting the trend of the two decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Primorsky region currently loses 15,000 residents per year, officially, and likely much more than that in reality. An area of 6.2 million square kilometers is now home to 6.2 million people, with 110 million Chinese on the other side of the border.

And all those Chinese across the border make Moscow nervous, notes Aleksandr Gabuyev in China’s “Global Times:

Since the middle of the 2000s, the Russian central government has taken several measures to limit Chinese presence in the Far East, and tried to replace foreign investment with large infrastructure projects like [the] APEC summit.The attitude of locals in the Far East and Siberia toward Chinese is very mixed.Younger and more competitive people would welcome more Chinese participation in the local economy. But large parts of the population fear a significant Chinese presence.

Rusya’nın Uzak Doğusunda Çin nüfusunu uzun vadede eritmesi en azından sağlıklı çalışan İnsan Ağaçları’na bağlı olacaktır. Söylemek istediğim esas koşul şudur: Tüm bireylere uygulanan ortak Oyun Kuralları başarılı bireyleri Ağaçların (Hiyerarşilerin) başına getirebilecektir. Bu ise Rusya medeniyetinin devamını getirebilecektir.
Reklamlar

Orta Asya’dan Rusya’nın Uzak Doğu Bölgesine Akın Eden İşgücü Hakkında Makale (The Article on Flow the Population of Central Asia to Russian Far East)

Rusya’nın Uzak Doğu bölgesiyle ilgili önemli bir tesbiti kaydetmek istiyorum: Aşağıdaki makaleye göre, Orta Asyalı vizesiz bölgeye girebilen işçilerin oranı Çinlilere oranla 1/4’ten 1/3’e yükselmiştir.

İlgimi çeken husus- Orta Asyalılar Rusça’yı Çinli ve Kuzey Korelilere göre daha iyi kullanıyorlar. Dini unsur baskın olmadığı için, Rusya’nın Uzak Doğu Türk halklarına benzer şekilde, oralara adapte olabiliyor ve uzun vadede toplu şekilde o bölgeye taşınmadıkları müddetçe assimile olabiliyorlar.

İnsan Ağaçları Modeli’ne göre, Uzak Doğu’nun gelişimi yetersiz kalan insan gücünü eski Sovyet cumhuriyetlerden takviye yaparak sürdürmeye çalışmaktadır. Bu takviye akıllıca yapılırsa, Orta Asya’nın Batır’ları o bölgeye entegre olup Dmitri’lere dönüşebilecektir. Fakat sistemde devletçilik gelenekleri bir kenara bırakılıp yolsuzluklar devam ederse, insanlar kendilerini geçici işgücü şeklinde empoze ederek Rusya’nın bir parçası olmaktan çekinecekler. 

Bu durumda Rusya’nın İnsan Ağaçlarına gerçek anlamda güç katamayan Ortaasyalı işçiler, Uzak Doğu Türk kabilelerinden  farklı olarak kendi kimliklerini koruyarak Çinli işçiler gibi Rusya’nın iç güvenliğine tehdit oluşturmaya devam edecekler.  

Makalenin İngilizce metni’ni dikkatinize sunuyorum:

Central Asia: Migrant Workers Finding Opportunity in Russian Far East

August 1, 2013 – 3:21pm, by Evgeny Kuzmin

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/67334

Traditionally the bulk of migrant laborers in Russia’s Far East have come from China, with a few North Koreans mixed in. But of late, workers from Central Asia have been pushing their Chinese competitors off the lowest rung on the labor ladder in eastern Siberia.

Chinese citizens still comprise a sizeable majority of the foreign workforce in the Amur Region, as well as other areas of the Russian Federation that border China. But in just the past few years, the migrant worker ratio of Chinese to Central Asians in the Amur Region has gone from four-to-one down to just over two-to-one, according to official statistics.

Employers in the Amur regional capital Blagoveshchensk, a city of 220,000, say rising wage expectations of Chinese workers make it more cost-effective for them to employ migrants from formerly Soviet republics like Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. China’s rapidly rising prosperity at home is putting pressure on Chinese migrants to earn more and send more home to relatives. At the same time, traditional migrant labor markets for Central Asians in Western Russia, especially Moscow and St. Petersburg, are becoming glutted, prompting an increasing number to explore opportunities in the Far East.

“For sure it’s the best option to make money in Moscow. But it’s too hard to find a place there these days. There are too many of us Uzbeks over there already,” said Batyr, a migrant from Uzbekistan who has worked for the past six months in Blagoveshchensk laying asphalt. It’s not uncommon to encounter lots of Central Asians in the city these days, mainly in the construction sector. In other Far Eastern cities, including Vladivostok and Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Central Asians have found work driving public buses.

Regional officials aren’t unhappy to see Central Asians replacing Chinese migrants, especially in the agricultural sector. Local authorities explain that Chinese farm workers on numerous occasions have disregarded local regulations. Tatyana Yakimenko, the head of the External Labor Migration Regulation Department of the Amur Regional Government, noted several instances in which the improper use of fertilizer caused soil degradation on farmland.

Aside from lower wage expectations, Central Asians have a competitive advantage because they don’t need visas to travel to Russia. Chinese workers, on the other hand, must cope with a visa regime that hampers many would-be illegals from crossing the border. For those wishing to work officially, the approval process takes months.

The demand for illegal workers in the Amur Region is significant, official statistics suggest. The local office of the Federal Migration Service issued a quota in 2013 for 13,000 migrant workers, a number that is about 1.5 percent of the overall regional population. At the same time, regional officials estimate there is demand for about 37,000 migrant laborers. The labor gap is the largest in the agricultural sector: one estimate for 2014 projects that for every four farm jobs that will be open, only about one officially registered migrant worker will be available.

Given the regional imbalance of supply and demand, Central Asian illegal migrants appear to be finding life a little easier in the Far East than their counterparts in big cities in European Russia, where harassment and extortion on the part of local officials and law enforcement officers are the norm.

To help blend in, Batyr, the migrant worker from Uzbekistan, says he’s adopted a Russian name — Dmitry. Batyr’s mannerisms and physical traits are such that locals don’t immediately take him to be from Central Asia as he moves about the city when not on the job. As long as he keeps his mouth shut, he tends not to get hassled. When forced to speak, though, his halting Russian reveals him to be a foreigner.

The influx of Central Asian migrants is reaching the point where local officials’ comparative tolerance may start to dissipate. In the Kamchatka Region, for example, officials are already showing signs of wanting to impose stricter regulations. A Public Chamber meeting in the region is scheduled for September in which one of the items on the agenda has to do with overcrowding in kindergartens, local media outlets report. Locals say that that the children of citizens should be guaranteed slots in public kindergartens before the kids of migrant laborer families are offered seats. Others complain that pregnant Central Asian women are traveling to the Far East to give birth in public hospitals, placing a burden on health services that are already stretched thin.

Editor’s note:

Evgeny Kuzmin is a freelance journalist. He worked as an editorial associate for EurasiaNet.org in 2012.

Araştırma konuları- Doktora (Research Subjects- PhD Study)

Doktora araştırma çalışmamla ilgili konuları devamlı taramaktayım. Rusça Vedomosti gazetesinde çıkan “Yönetilemeyen Bölge” başlığı altında çıkan makalede 2012 yılından bu yana oluşturulan “Doğuyu Kalkındırma Programı” üzerinde Rusya Hükümeti tartışma ve istişare yapmaktadır. Kurumları sıfırdan oluşturmak elbette ki kolay değildir. Oyun Kurallarının yeniden şekillenmesi belirli süre istemektedir. Makalenin linki: http://www.vedomosti.ru/finance/news/12739851/neupravlyaemyj_region

Atay Hoca’ma dediğim gibi, Rusya’nın Uzak Doğu bölgesi gelişmelerini izlemek- doktora tezi araştırmam için en güzel örnek olabilir.

Makalenin Google Translate üzerinden yapılan İngilizce tercümesi aşağıdadır:

At yesterday’s meeting with his deputy prime minister Dmitry Medvedev once again asked how things were going with the development of the Far East (the quotes on the site of the government). Back in late March, he said that while no institution of the region “does not work properly.” Until June 26 to report back to President Vladimir Putin, “as a general change management system the Far East,” said First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov.

In the spring the government approved the State Program of Development of the Far East to the years 2014-2025. It value is 3,8 trillion rubles (122,6 billion USD). It is 14 times more than the estimates of long-term capacity of the federal budget, the finance minister said at the time, Anton Siluanov. Now comes the budget process, reported Shuvalov: “We will be offering 100 billion a year for that purpose within five years.” This is significantly less than that provided state program. For example, in 2014, according to the document on the region should be spent 308 billion rubles. Shuvalov spoke only on investment projects, explained the discrepancy between his representative.

“This program is very large, it even raises questions – how to take that kind of money,” – Medvedev asked.

Budget funding is not enough, he stated, to look for money in the investment program of major companies, to government funding “went hand in hand” with the private. To attract investors, the government offers tax exemptions regional recalled Shuvalov State Duma adopted in the first reading a bill on the special tax regime. The tax rate on profits paid to the federal budget, will be reset (total – 2%), in the regions – reduced: a maximum of 10% in the first five years of the project, then – at least 10% for the next five years.

According to Shuvalov, the law should be ready by the end of July. Approved and the list of priority investment projects in the region – a total of 38, mostly infrastructure, including regional road, airfield on the island of Iturup Kuril among energy – ESPO oil pipeline system, referred to socially significant aquarium on the island of Russian.

As long as the main tool for the implementation of investment projects in the region – a specialized “daughter” VEB – Fund Development of the Far East and the Baikal region. The fund was established in the form of a registered capital of 500 million rubles. At the end of 2012, it was capitalized up to 15 billion rubles. But the project requirements are too stringent – high yield, fast payback and dual collateral, complained to the Governor of the Amur Region Oleg Kozhemyako such units in the region. Since not all projects fit into the form of stock, there is a proposal to convert the Fund in a non-profit organization (ANO), said Shuvalov. This may be a new form – public-interest entity, Medvedev said: it is desirable that the authorities have developed a joint position.

The state program of the Far East development is inadequate. The Eastern Development Ministry (Minvostokrazvitiya) have sufficient authority and weight, but judging by it proposals such as a bridge to Sakhalin – it’s for the better, says the director of the regional program of the Independent Institute for Social Policy Natalia Zubarevich: the only effective way for the region – open access to foreign investors. The most interesting resource projects now, she says: For as long as other underdeveloped infrastructure. You need to debug procedures to enter into concession agreements and production sharing recommends Zubarevich. But such a decision for the government is ideologically unacceptable, she sighs.